2017 Year In Review: How We Did-Running Backs

Trying to forecast a fantasy season is a tough gig, and let’s be honest, there is definitely a lot of luck involved; sometimes you hit the jackpot, and sometimes you end up dead wrong. Here at The SFFS, we like to say fantasy football is 25% skill, and 75% luck. Our goal is to provide you with the best fantasy advice and analysis we can, so we’ll now take a look back at our 2017 forecasts and predictions to see how we did.
Let’s take a look at our “Too Early Top 5: Running Backs”, where during the summer we projected our top 5 fantasy players at the RB position

Too early top 5: PPR-league running backs  -June 2, 2017

David Johnson:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 1,011 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, 96 receptions for 1,055 yards and six td’s
2017 actual: 23 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns, six receptions for 67 yards and zero td’s.
Final take: Johnson was lost for the year halfway into his first game of 2017 with a wrist injury.

Le’ Veon Bell:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 1,345 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns, 82 receptions, 725 receiving yards and four touchdowns
2017 actual: 1,291 rushing yards , 9 touchdowns, 85 receptions for 655 yards and two touchdowns.
Final take: Bell was a true dual threat in 2017, and our projections weren’t that far off the mark as Le’Veon finished as the #2 overall scoring running back in both standard and PPR formats.

Ezekiel Elliott:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 1,600 rushing yards, 10 td’s, 43 receptions for 463 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
2017 actual: 983 rushing yards, 7 td’s, 26 receptions for 269 yards and two touchdowns.
Final take: Our projection might have been on the mark if it wasn’t for the six- game suspension Zeke ended up having to serve in week 10. Though the missed games brought him down in the total fantasy points ranks, he still finished as the #3 RB in fantasy PPR points per game with 19.5.

Jay Ajayi:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 1,568 rushing yards, 9 td’s, 33 receptions for 237 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
2017 actual: 873 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, 24 receptions for 158 yards and 1 td.
Final take: We ended up being way off, as Ajayi fell out of favor in Miami and ended up getting traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, where he wound up in a 3-way time-share.

Ty Montgomery:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 783 rushing yards, 5 td’s, 78 receptions for 702 yards and 4 touchdowns.
2017 actual: 273 rushing yards, 3 td’s, 23 receptions for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.
Final take: Through the first two weeks of 2017, we looked spot-on with our projection, as Montgomery totaled 39 touches and 3 touchdowns. But a week three rib injury hobbled him the rest of the season, severely limiting his production as he managed to play in just eight games.

Our next level options:
Jordan Howard: finished as the 14th-ranked standard scoring back and the 20th ranked PPR back.
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills: was the 11th-ranked standard scoring back but was the 7th overall scoring RB in PPR formats.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons: 13th ranked overall scoring PPR back, while averaging 13.5 PPR points a game.
Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens: Injuries ravaged Woodhead’s season, as he totaled just 52 overall PPR points on the year.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers: The rookie was a receiving force, finishing in the top 10 in overall PPR points and top 15 in average PPR points per game.

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