Trying to forecast a fantasy season is a tough gig, and let’s be honest, there is definitely a lot of luck involved; sometimes you hit the jackpot, and sometimes you end up dead wrong. Here at The SFFS, we like to say fantasy football is 25% skill, and 75% luck. Our goal is to provide you with the best fantasy advice and analysis we can, so we’ll now take a look back at our 2017 forecasts and predictions to see how we did.
Let’s kick it off with our “Too Early Top 5: Quarterbacks”, where during the summer we projected our top 5 fantasy players at the QB position.
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 399-592 for 4,736 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
2017 actual: 385-581 for 4,577 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Final take: This projection was pretty much spot on, as Brady went on to lead the NFL in passing yards and finished second in total QB fantasy points.
2. Aaron Rodgers:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 464-670 for 4,352 yards, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
2017 actual: 154-238 for 1,675 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Final take: A collarbone injury limited Rodgers to seven games in 2017, but when he did play, Aaron racked up the fantasy points, finishing second in the NFL with 26 fantasy points per game.
3. Matt Ryan:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 367-545 for 4,414 yards, 33 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
2017 actual: 342-529 for 4,095 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Final take: We were pretty close to projecting Ryan’s actual attempts and completions, but missed the mark in touchdowns as Matt and the Falcons struggled to punch it in the endzone all season long. Ryan finished 31st in the NFL with just 15.81 fantasy points per game.
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 421-620 for 4,650 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
2017 actual: 386-536 for 4,334 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Final take: Brees went to the air a lot less than we had projected in 2017 as the Saints relied on a reinvigorated run game with the explosive and dynamic Kamara and Ingram. Brees made the most of his attempts, averaging 11.23 yards per attempt, but saw his TD totals drop as the running backs saw an increased workload in the redzone. Brees finished as the 20th ranked QB with 18.63 fantasy points a game.
5. Andrew Luck:
The SFFS’ 2017 projection: 384-610 for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
2017 actual: no stats accumulated, zero games played.
Final take: An injury robbed Luck of the entire 2017 and leaves his career in doubt. A big swing and a miss by us this year.
Our next level options:
Kirk Cousins: Finished 16th ranked QB with 19.81 fantasy points a game
Russell Wilson: Finished as the #1 ranked QB in total fantasy points and fourth in fantasy points per game.
Dak Prescott: 21st ranked QB in fantasy points per game, struggled mightily without Zeke.
Jameis Winston: Up and down season, finished as 15th ranked QB with 19.91 points a game.
Derek Carr: Extremely disappointing season, finished 29th in points per week and 18th in total QB fantasy points.